Secrets of 1v1 Masters

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Master the art of 1v1 on TwoSheep.io, the best free alternative to Settlers of Catan, where every decision from resource allocation to strategic positioning can lead to victory or defeat. This guide is based on comprehensive gameplay data analysis from the first 1v1 season, providing actionable strategies for players of all levels.

Click here to see the replay!
An interesting case of a 3 resource vs a 4 resource start. 

For those unfamiliar with 1v1 rules:

  • Victory Points to win is increased from 10 to 15
  • The Discard limit is increased from 7 to 9
  • The Robber cannot block a player with only 2 visible VPs (aka friendly robber rule)
  • Balanced Dice (dice outcomes closely resemble expected outcomes)
  • Balanced 7s (7 rolls are balanced between players)

Data

After the end of TwoSheep.io’s inaugural 1v1 season, here we analyze 100+ stats per match per player from hundreds of games. This initial post will focus on one of the most impactful decisions you can make: initial settlements. 

First Mover Advantage

In the strategic dynamics of 1v1 games, the order of play carries significant implications for the outcome - our analysis reveals a notable advantage for players who move first, exhibiting a win rate of 56% compared to 44% for those going second. This suggests a parallel to chess, where the player controlling the White pieces traditionally moves first and enjoys a win rate of approximately 52-56%, emphasizing a universal strategic principle across competitive games: the player who acts first has the chance to dictate the game's pace, apply pressure, and seize initiative. 

Production: is it all that matters?

Fans of pure production will rejoice. From our analysis, players with the highest total production enjoy significantly higher win rates, peaking at a total production of 24, before a suspiciously large dip at 25. 

Increasing your staring production massively increases your win %

659: It’s a trap!?

A total of 25 production can only occur when the start 659 spot (with 13 production) is present. This finding seems to imply that taking this spot counterintuitively is worse than taking an 11, 10, or ever 9 point spot. Perhaps the 659 leads to a lack of viable expansion spots? Or maybe it’s just an artifact of our relatively small sample size. When we zoom out to look at all games with a 659 settle the win rate is exactly 50%! More data is needed.

A 17 production vs a 25 production start with the possibly cursed 659
Check out the replay here

The 5 Resource Advantage

Our findings reveal something that many of you probably strongly believe: players who start with all five resources have a significant advantage. This makes sense as you are able to perform the full range of actions without needing to use a port, and can have a flexible game plan depending on what rolls first: dev/city materials or road/settlement resources.

This association between increased staring production and better win chance seems to not hold true for 4 resource starts

The Impact of a Missing Resource

Exploring scenarios where players start without one resource, we found that missing wheat has the least detrimental effect on win rates among all resources, with a win rate of 49%. Note that due to the small sample size the differences between the top four resources should not be taken too seriously. However starting without brick is evidently risky, with a dismal win rate of 36%.

Starting without brick is a bad idea

A no-wheat start, following the above guidance.
See the replay here

Limits to the data

Note that this is still a relatively small amount of games, future updates should have significantly more data than this. Take the findings here with a grain of salt. 

Conclusion

The findings from our analysis illuminate the profound impact of initial placements and resource production on game outcomes. The data suggests a winning formula that includes a diversified resource base and aiming for higher total production. As we continue to unravel the "Secrets of 1v1 Masters," it becomes clear that victory is often forged in the very first moves of the game. Stay tuned after the end of our next season for an update to these and a deep dive into build order!

Thanks for reading, now come join in season 2!

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